Texas Senate Poll: YouGov Shows Talarico Leading Paxton 51-47, and the Governor's Race a Dead Heat at 50-49
A YouGov survey of 2,141 likely Texas voters conducted October 26-29 puts Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51 to 47 in the Senate race, and Republican Gov. Greg Abbott ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa just 50 to 49 for governor — inside the poll's 2.9-point margin of error — two days before Election Day.
Democrats are showing unexpected strength in Texas two days before Tuesday's midterm elections, according to a YouGov survey read in full this cycle. The poll, conducted October 26-29 among 2,141 likely Texas voters with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points, showed Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 51 percent to 47 percent in the U.S. Senate race — a 4-point lead, wider than the 3-point margin in an earlier University of Texas poll carried in the same account.
The governor's race is tighter still. Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 50 percent to 49 percent, a 1-point edge inside the margin of error, in a state Republicans have dominated for decades, per the account. Two other recent surveys point the same competitive direction with different numbers: a YouGov Blue poll conducted for 254 Labs showed Talarico leading Paxton 51 to 43 while Hinojosa led Abbott 49 to 46, and an N+ Univision/YouGov survey released October 27 showed Talarico ahead 50 to 45 and Abbott ahead 48 to 46. The desk carries each poll as its own survey, with its own sample and sponsor — the surveys agree the races are competitive; they do not agree on a single number, and none is a result.
The polling sits on top of a turnout surge. More than 7.4 million Texans cast early ballots, 39 percent of registered voters, according to preliminary figures reported by The Texas Tribune and carried in the account — against 5.5 million early votes in the 2022 midterms, approaching the early-voting rate of 2018. Among Hispanic voters, the Univision survey showed Talarico leading Paxton 55 to 37 and Hinojosa leading Abbott 52 to 43, and found 42 percent of Hispanic respondents reporting worsening household finances while 56 percent said immigration enforcement had gone too far, per the account. Texas voters do not register by party, which makes early-vote trends difficult to interpret — the caution the account itself carries, and the reason Tuesday's count, not any survey, decides both races.
