Trump's Noncitizen Voter Lists Could Shadow Tuesday's Results — and Texas Handed Over Its Rolls Voluntarily

As Americans head to the polls on Tuesday, lists the Trump administration has compiled of possible noncitizen voters could be used to contest the validity of the results, Reuters reported Sunday in an explainer read in full this cycle. The administration has acknowledged sending letters to election officials in five states — California, Washington, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Nevada — as of October 30, saying it identified noncitizens on their voter rolls, according to a Justice Department document seen by Reuters. In an October 13 letter the department demanded California not count ballots from about 20,000 registered voters federal agencies 'reasonably believe are likely noncitizens' without first verifying their citizenship, warning election workers who processed them could face prosecution. State officials rebuffed requests to set aside those ballots, the lists have not been made public, and the department is now suing California to block it from counting any ballots from the list, per Reuters.

Texas is on the other side of that divide. The administration sought unredacted voter rolls to identify alleged noncitizens, and at least 16 states, including Alabama and Texas, complied voluntarily, Reuters reported. Thirty states, including California and New York, plus Washington, D.C., have not complied and have been sued for their rolls; courts have rejected 27 of those efforts so far, with many judges finding the federal government has no role in determining voter eligibility, and the Justice Department has appealed many of the losses. The Department of Homeland Security obtained at least partial voter-roll data from at least 47 states — typically names, addresses and registration status, sometimes dates of birth — according to an internal DHS email reviewed by Reuters, and federal investigators matched that data against government databases to identify potential noncitizens. Noncitizen voting is illegal and can lead to jail, fines and deportation; the White House says it is a significant problem requiring aggressive enforcement, while a Reuters investigation in July found just 129 cases in which noncitizens were federally charged with voting illegally since the federal statute was created in 1996, many stemming from confusion or administrative errors rather than intentional fraud, per Reuters.

The lists' midterm weight is in what happens after close races. They could provide a basis for challenging results even if the administration struggles in court: under most state laws only candidates or voters can challenge, but a losing candidate could argue suspected noncitizen votes made the rightful winner impossible to determine, three legal experts told Reuters, and reviews of the lists have found many people on them are U.S. citizens. On October 28 a federal judge in California rejected the department's bid to block the 20,000 voters' ballots, saying it would 'wreak havoc' on the November 3 elections, and an appeals court upheld that ruling October 30, citing a 'material risk' of disenfranchising eligible voters, per Reuters. Texas voters are not on any letter list named in the account read — but the state's rolls helped build the system, and any Texas race close enough to draw a challenge Tuesday night will be argued in its shadow.