In a Texas Senate Race Inside the Margin of Error, Libertarian Ted Brown Is the Third Name on the Ballot
Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico are separated by two points or less in the late public polls — which is why the Libertarian in the race, Ted Brown, is drawing attention in the final days: in a contest this close, a third candidate who will not win can still hold a share bigger than the margin.
Texas voters deciding the U.S. Senate race on Tuesday will see three names, not two. Alongside Republican nominee Ken Paxton, the state attorney general, and Democratic nominee James Talarico, the Austin state representative, the ballot carries Libertarian Ted Brown. KXAN's State of Texas program, in its Nov. 1 edition read this cycle, put the point plainly: Brown will not win the Senate race, but in a contest expected to be decided by a razor-thin margin, his share of the vote could prove consequential — the program sat down with Brown to discuss his campaign and why he rejects the labels applied to third candidates.
The arithmetic is what makes a third name matter this year. The late public polls carried in the accounts read this cycle put the two major-party nominees inside every margin of error: a Texas Southern University survey of 2,000 likely voters found Talarico at 49 percent to Paxton's 47; a Texas Public Opinion Research poll found Talarico 51 to 47; a Quantus Insights poll conducted Oct. 26-28 found Paxton ahead 48.7 to 47.6; and a Fox News poll found the two tied at 49 each. In a race separated by one or two points, a Libertarian share of even two or three percent — drawn from voters who might otherwise have picked a major-party nominee, or stayed home — is larger than the gap the winner will likely win by.
The seat itself explains the attention. The race is to replace Sen. John Cornyn, who lost the Republican primary to Paxton, and Talarico is trying to become the first Democrat in more than three decades to win a statewide election in Texas, per the accounts read this cycle. Paxton has described the race as a tie and urged supporters to turn out, warning Republicans cannot assume Texas will stay red. Texas polls are open Tuesday, Nov. 3 from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.; the Brown question answers itself that night, in the space between the two bigger numbers.
