Texas Governor Odds Narrow on Election Eve: Kalshi Puts Abbott at 62 Percent, and the Final Siena Poll Has Hinojosa Up 48 to 47
The prediction market still favors the incumbent, but by less than it did — while the last New York Times/Siena poll of the race puts Gina Hinojosa one point ahead of Greg Abbott, inside the margin of error, and the Senate market gives James Talarico 74 percent.
Texas Gov. Greg Abbott's lead over Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa has narrowed in Kalshi's Texas governor market as Election Day approaches, Kalshi News reported in a market file read in full by the desk this cycle. As of Monday, November 2, traders on the platform give Abbott a 62 percent chance of winning the governor's race and Hinojosa 38 percent. The polling underneath the market is tighter than the price: a final New York Times/Siena College poll found Hinojosa at 48 percent and Abbott at 47 percent, a one-percentage-point difference within the survey's margin of error. Axios spoke to several political experts about Hinojosa's chances now that she is within the margin of error; Southern Methodist University political scientist Matthew Wilson told Axios: "It is probably at this stage easier to mobilize someone who is not that fired up about voting than it is to actually change someone's mind."
The Senate market has moved the other way. Kalshi traders give Democrat James Talarico a 74 percent chance of winning the Texas Senate race, with Republican Ken Paxton at 26 percent, as of Monday — a lead the platform says Talarico has extended in the final stretch. Prediction-market prices are contract prices set by traders, not votes and not results; the desk carries them as a market read alongside the polls, nothing more.
The two Republican statewide candidates have shared surprisingly little stage. The New York Times reported, in the account Kalshi carried, that Abbott held a rally at a steakhouse in Wichita Falls that also featured an appearance by Paxton, but the candidates did not share the stage: Paxton thanked Abbott during his speech — "We've never had a stronger advocate," Paxton said of the governor — while Abbott, who headlined the event, did not mention Paxton. The Times reported that some Republican consultants put the blame in part on Paxton, who has trailed Talarico in public polls for months. On the Democratic side, Hinojosa joined Talarico at a San Antonio rally as both campaigns made their final appeals, KENS 5 reported; "This fight is too important to take for granted," Hinojosa said. "We are in the fight of our lives." Texas voters settle both races Tuesday, with Bexar County vote centers open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
