Three Final Texas Senate Polls Released Sunday All Show James Talarico Leading Ken Paxton Into Election Day
AtlasIntel put Talarico at 51.3 percent to Paxton's 45.4, the New York Times/Siena poll at 50 to 43, and YouGov at 51 to 47 — with a polling average giving Talarico a 4-point edge in one of the seven Senate battlegrounds that decide control.
Polls show Democratic nominee James Talarico with a lead over Republican nominee Ken Paxton in Texas's U.S. Senate race heading into Election Day, USA Today reported in a roundup read in full by the desk this cycle. The race is one of seven battlegrounds that will be crucial to determining partisan control of the Senate in the midterm elections on November 3, and Talarico leads Paxton by 4 percentage points according to an average of polling by FiftyPlusOne.
Three polls released November 1 all showed Talarico leading. An AtlasIntel poll showed 51.3 percent of voters favoring Talarico and 45.4 percent backing Paxton; it was conducted October 28 to November 1, surveyed more than 1,600 Texas adults, and carried a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points. A Siena College/New York Times poll showed 50 percent supporting Talarico and 43 percent favoring Paxton, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 points; it surveyed 1,215 voters from October 27 to November 1. A YouGov poll showed 51 percent of those surveyed had or would vote for Talarico, while 47 percent had or would vote for Paxton.
The averages tell the longer story the roundup carried: FiftyPlusOne's average of polls throughout the race showed Talarico and Paxton polling evenly until early April, when the Democrat began pulling slightly ahead. Texas voters — Talarico is a member of the Texas House; Paxton is the state's attorney general — render the verdict Tuesday, when Bexar County vote centers run 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. This file is the final-polls record; the station's election-eve forecast file, published earlier today, worked the polling averages and prediction markets as a separate analysis.
