Texas Enters Election Day With 7.7 Million Early Ballots Cast and a Modeled Republican Firewall of 627,636 Votes

Texas goes into Election Day with 7,716,859 early and mail ballots already cast, according to the final early-voting count carried in a November 1 turnout estimate reported Monday and read by the desk this cycle. The estimate, published by the analyst Election Data Guy and reported by Conservative Brief, models the partisan shape of that early vote: 4,116,419 ballots assigned to Republicans, 3,488,783 to Democrats, and 111,657 classified separately — a modeled Republican firewall of 627,636 ballots that Election Day voters would have to overcome to erase.

The model is an estimate, and the story carries its limits in the same breath. Texas voters do not register by party, so partisan classifications of returned ballots require assumptions built on voters' primary history; official vote counts by party are not known until the votes themselves are counted. The model's split sits around 53 percent Republican to 45 percent Democratic — softer for Republicans than their 2024 share of 56.0 percent, and firmer for Democrats than their 2024 share of 42.6 percent and 2022 share of 43.2 percent, according to the published ranges, which project Republicans between 50 and 56 percent of the final vote and Democrats between 41 and 47 percent, on estimated final turnout of 54 percent.

The modeled firewall grew through the early-voting period, from about 474,470 on October 25 to roughly 627,636 on November 1, the report said. What it means for Tuesday is the open question this station's results coverage will answer: the Senate race between Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico and every statewide contest on the ballot will be decided by whether Election Day turnout matches the model's shape or breaks it. Polls open across Texas at 7 a.m. Tuesday and close at 7 p.m.