Talarico Leads in San Antonio 55 to 33 in the Final Siena Poll — and Paxton Leads Everywhere Outside the Metros, 59 to 36
The crosstabs under the 50-to-43 topline tell the geography of the Senate race: Talarico ahead in all four big metros and among women, young voters, Hispanic and Black voters; Paxton ahead among men, older voters and white voters.
The final New York Times/Siena poll of the Texas Senate race, released Sunday, put James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton 50 percent to 43 percent among 1,215 voters surveyed October 27 to November 1 — the widest margin from a national polling source since Talarico's campaign launched in September 2025, the El Paso Times reported in a story read in full by the desk this cycle. The crosstabs underneath it are the map Texas votes on Tuesday.
Talarico holds a lead in all of the state's major metropolitan areas — 53 to 43 in Dallas/Fort Worth, 55 to 37 in Houston, 55 to 33 in the San Antonio area and 62 to 30 in Austin — while the rest of Texas swings toward Paxton, 59 to 36. Talarico polls better among women, 56 to 38; voters 18 to 29, 72 to 23; voters 30 to 44, 55 to 33; Hispanic voters, 65 to 27; and Black voters, 85 to 10. Paxton polls better among men, 48 to 44, and among voters 45 and older, and white voters prefer Paxton 59 to 35.
An education gap runs through the race as well: voters holding a bachelor's degree or higher favor Talarico 53 to 40, while those without a college degree favor Paxton 48 to 45. The Siena poll also found Democrats ahead in five of the seven Senate races being decided nationally on Tuesday. San Antonio's 22-point metro margin is the second-widest in the state — and on Tuesday the question the crosstabs cannot answer is which Texas, the metros or everywhere else, turns out heavier.
