Final Texas Poll: Talarico Leads Paxton by Four, Abbott Leads Hinojosa by Three With 11 Days to Go
Texas Public Opinion Research's third and final tracking poll puts Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton 51 to 47 in the Senate race and Governor Greg Abbott ahead of Gina Hinojosa 51 to 48 — both margins at the edge of the survey's error range.
The last tracking poll of the Texas campaign season shows both of the state's marquee races still competitive with early voting under way. Texas Public Opinion Research, a nonpartisan polling initiative, released its third and final monthly survey on Friday: Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 51 percent to 47 percent in the race for the U.S. Senate seat, and Republican Governor Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 51 percent to 48 percent in the governor's race.
The survey of 969 likely general election voters was conducted October 15 to 18 and carries a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points, which puts both leads at or near the edge of the survey's error range. For this final release, TPOR's topline figures are final-push tallies, a method that presses undecided voters to choose a candidate rather than leaving them unallocated. Libertarian Ted Brown draws 2 percent in the Senate race and Libertarian Pat Dixon 1 percent in the governor's race.
The trend lines have tightened all fall. Talarico's lead over Paxton has narrowed by one point in each of TPOR's three tracking polls, from six points to five to four, while Abbott's lead over Hinojosa has narrowed from seven points in August to four in September to three in October. Down the ballot, Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson 50 to 48 for attorney general, and Republican Dan Patrick leads Democrat Vikki Goodwin 50 to 47 for lieutenant governor.
Independent voters are breaking sharply toward the Democratic statewide candidates in this survey: Talarico leads Paxton among independents by 38 points, 66 to 28, and Hinojosa leads Abbott among independents by 27 points, 61 to 34. On the questions of who would do more to tackle the cost of living, 51 percent of voters chose Talarico over Paxton's 43 percent, while Abbott and Hinojosa ran nearly even, 49 to 47.
A Talarico or Hinojosa win would give Democrats their first statewide victory in Texas in more than three decades, and an Abbott win would make him the first Texas governor elected to a fourth term. Early voting in Bexar County and across Texas runs through October 30, and polls reopen on Election Day, November 3.
