Texas Southern Poll: Talarico 49, Paxton 47 — a Statistical Tie in the Texas Senate Race With One Day of Early Voting Left
A Texas Southern University poll released Thursday puts James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters — inside its 2.19-point margin of error — with Ted Brown at 3 percent and 1 percent undecided.
The Texas Senate race goes into the final day of early voting as a statistical tie. A Texas Southern University poll released Thursday, October 29, and reported by USA Today, found Democrat James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton 49 percent to 47 percent among likely voters, with Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 percent and 1 percent undecided. The poll surveyed 2,000 likely voters from October 21 to 25, and its margin of error is 2.19 percentage points — which makes Talarico's two-point edge a statistical tie.
The poll was conducted before President Donald Trump's two campaign stops in Texas earlier this week, where he campaigned for Paxton in Corpus Christi and Lubbock — the same West Texas city where Talarico held a rally a few miles away. Under the topline, 48 percent of likely voters view Talarico favorably and 51 percent unfavorably, while 42 percent view Paxton favorably and 57 percent unfavorably. Talarico led among independents, 54 percent to 38 percent; Democrats backed Talarico 99 percent to 1 percent, and Republicans backed Paxton 88 percent, with 8 percent intending to vote for Talarico.
The TSU result sits in a tight October band this station has reported poll by poll: Emerson College/Nexstar (Oct. 22) had Talarico 48, Paxton 46; the Cook Political Report battleground poll (Oct. 21) had Talarico 49, Paxton 44; and a Fox News poll (Oct. 21) had the race tied at 49. Early voting ends Friday, October 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
