New Polls Keep the Texas Senate Race Tight: James Talarico Leads the UT Poll and Latino Voters, Ken Paxton Holds Rural Texas
A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll puts Talarico up 3 points over Paxton, and a University of Houston poll released Monday gives him an 11-point edge among Latino voters — while rural voters overwhelmingly prefer Paxton, with one week to Election Day.
The Texas Senate race remains the closest statewide contest in the state with a week to go. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll released last week showed Democratic state Rep. James Talarico up by 3 points over Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton, KUT reported Monday in its account of Talarico's Friday evening rally at UT Austin, where he spoke to a packed auditorium as part of his 'Clear Eyes, Full Hearts' tour.
A University of Houston poll released Monday added the race's sharpest split: Talarico holds an 11-point advantage over Paxton among Latino voters, according to the same KUT reporting, while rural voters overwhelmingly prefer Paxton. The newer polls sit alongside the surveys already defining the race's final stretch — a Fox News poll released October 21 that found the two tied at 49 percent among likely voters, and an Emerson College poll from October 22 that had Talarico ahead 48 to 46, within the margin of error.
The money tells its own story about how both sides see the race: Talarico has raised $68.6 million in direct fundraising against Paxton's $19.5 million, according to Federal Election Commission data, while Republicans have spent more than $200 million on outside advertising in support of Paxton. No Democrat has won a statewide contest in Texas in more than three decades. Early voting runs through Friday, October 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
