New York Times Analysis Ranks Texas the Nation's Most Gerrymandered State, With a Six-Seat Republican Advantage

A New York Times analysis published Monday ranks Texas as the nation's most aggressively gerrymandered state, according to San Antonio Current reporting on the analysis read in full this cycle. Using computer simulations that compared the existing congressional boundaries with alternatives drawn without regard to which party would benefit, the Times estimated that the map gives Republicans an advantage equivalent to six congressional seats over a politically neutral alternative, and gave Texas' redistricting an aggressiveness score of 73 out of 99.

The analysis found Texas could have about a dozen more competitive or Democratic-leaning congressional districts if its map were drawn in a politically neutral manner. It pointed to shapes such as the north side of Austin, where motorists can drive through five separate congressional districts in 10 minutes, and Dallas-area suburban voters placed in districts stretching hundreds of miles, including one reaching to the New Mexico border.

The map at issue is the 2025 congressional redistricting the Texas Legislature enacted last year, encouraged by President Donald Trump and Gov. Greg Abbott, in a bid to boost the party's U.S. House majority — the move that set off a nationwide round of mid-decade redistricting. The findings are the Times' analysis, reported here as its authors presented them; how many of the districts drawn to favor Republicans actually change hands will be decided by voters on Nov. 3.