Texas Midterm Prediction Markets Favor Talarico for Senate and Abbott for Governor in the Final Week
Polymarket prices checked Tuesday afternoon put James Talarico at 65 percent in the Senate race and Gov. Greg Abbott at 69 percent in the governor's race — market odds, not polls, with nearly $140 million traded across the two races.
With one week left before Election Day, the prediction markets are pricing Texas as a split decision: a Democrat favored for the U.S. Senate seat and the Republican governor favored to keep his office. Covers, in a Texas midterm odds review updated Tuesday, reported Polymarket prices checked at 5:15 p.m. ET on Oct. 27 showing James Talarico at 65 percent against Ken Paxton's 36 percent in the Senate market, with $99.6 million traded.
In the governor's race, the same check put Gov. Greg Abbott at 69 percent against state Rep. Gina Hinojosa at 32 percent, with $39.5 million traded. Abbott is seeking a fourth term, and Democrats are trying to win the governorship for the first time since 1994, Covers noted.
The Senate market's lean runs against the state's recent presidential history — Donald Trump carried Texas by 14 points in 2024, his best result in three presidential campaigns — and reflects the campaigns' own readings of a race that published polls have kept within the margin of error. Paxton defeated incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary earlier this year.
The desk notes the standing caution that applies to every market story: prediction-market prices are the odds traders are willing to take, not a survey of voters, and they can move sharply in the final days. Four competitive Texas House seats will also help decide control of the U.S. House. Early voting runs through Friday, Oct. 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 3.
