Texas Governor Race: Abbott Leads Hinojosa 51-48 and 49-46 in the Final Polls as Both Campaigns Close in El Paso, Lubbock and Dallas
Two October polls put Gov. Greg Abbott narrowly ahead of Democrat Gina Hinojosa — 51-48 in a Texas Public Opinion Research poll released Oct. 23 and 49-46 in a Fox News poll released Oct. 21 — and the final week played out the way close races do: dueling El Paso rallies a day apart, a Lubbock property-tax speech, and a joint Dallas closer with the Senate nominee.
The race for Texas governor enters its final 48 hours inside the margin of most polling. A Texas Public Opinion Research poll released October 23 has Republican Gov. Greg Abbott at 51 percent to Democrat Gina Hinojosa's 48 percent, and a Fox News poll released October 21 has Abbott ahead 49-46, with 2 percent for Libertarian Pat Dixon — two surveys, read this cycle in the El Paso Times' accounts, that describe the same race: an incumbent leading, a challenger within reach, and turnout left to decide it on Tuesday, November 3.
The closing argument ran through El Paso on consecutive days. Hinojosa's "One Fight Tour" stop on Wednesday, October 28 drew about 200 supporters chanting her name to the Epic Railyard Event Center, where she attacked Abbott's ties to billionaires, called for greater regulation of data centers, and pointed to her Travis County lawsuit seeking unredacted emails between Elon Musk and the governor's office — a suit a Travis County judge initially granted before the Fifteenth Court of Appeals stopped the release, per the El Paso Times. Abbott answered the next day at Rosa's Cantina before more than 250 supporters. "We're here today to make sure we do everything necessary to keep Texas," Abbott told the crowd, per the Times' account of the event, read in full this cycle. He claimed Hinojosa was soft on immigration enforcement and had voted to raise taxes, defended his August order halting data-center permits pending a state audit of power and water use, and called her records lawsuit "nothing more than a sham lawsuit," noting his office had provided some 1,400 pages. At the same event Abbott announced a state disaster declaration for El Paso County after flooding near Horizon City damaged at least 60 homes on October 26, with state emergency resources deploying under the declaration.
The tour geometry tells the rest of the weekend. Abbott rallied hundreds of supporters at The Funky Door in Lubbock on Friday, joined by Sen. Charles Perry and Rep. Carl Tepper, where property taxes ran through the speech and he put a specific rule on the table — voters should approve any property-tax increase, by a two-thirds margin — while claiming Hinojosa had voted repeatedly for higher property taxes, per the 806 Connect account read this cycle; her campaign has disputed his tax characterization throughout the race. Hinojosa, for her part, shared a Thursday stage in Dallas with Senate nominee James Talarico at the Kay Bailey Hutchison Convention Center, calling the rally "bittersweet" after a year on the trail, per the Dispatch Times account. Her campaign says the One Fight tour has covered more than 3,000 miles since October 18, with rallies in Houston, San Antonio, Laredo, Odessa, Denton, Corpus Christi, Waco, Fort Worth and El Paso, and further stops planned in Houston, San Antonio and Austin before Tuesday. Election Day polls are open 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
