Six Things to Watch on Election Day as Voters Decide Control of Congress
Reuters' Election Day watch list runs from the four-seat math in both chambers to roughly 1,000 Justice Department monitors, the turnout question, and whether a several-hundred-million-dollar Republican money edge actually paid off.
Americans head to the polls Tuesday in midterm elections that will decide control of Congress for the final two years of President Donald Trump's term, and Reuters' factbox, read by the desk this cycle, sets out six things to watch. The first is the math: Democrats need a net gain of four seats in both the House and the Senate to overturn Republicans' narrow 218-214 and 53-47 majorities. They are widely expected to reclaim the House, Reuters reports, while the Senate fight hinges on six to eight races — Democrats need to flip several Republican-held seats in states Trump carried by double digits in 2024, including Ohio, Iowa, Alaska and Texas, hold Michigan and pick up Maine.
The second watch is the count itself. Election officials have warned that close races could spark disputes over voter eligibility, ballot counting and certification, and Trump's Justice Department plans to deploy about 1,000 monitors nationwide on Election Day — roughly triple the number used in the last midterms — a move some local officials worry could intimidate voters, although the department says those fears are baseless. Attorney General Todd Blanche on October 22 declined to rule out Justice Department intervention in state certifications, saying extreme circumstances could warrant action. Third is the president's own response to the results; fourth is turnout, where polls show Democrats significantly more enthusiastic heading into Election Day, while strategists caution that core Democratic constituencies have historically turned out at lower rates in midterms.
The last two watches reach past Tuesday night. The results will feed the fight inside the Democratic Party over its 2028 message — strong showings by moderates and by the party's left will each be claimed as validation — and they will answer whether the Republican money advantage paid off: Republicans held an overall spending edge of several hundred million dollars once committees and outside groups are counted, including more than $277 million spent by Trump, mostly through his MAGA Inc. super PAC, on a late television and direct-mail blitz, and roughly $366 million spent by Elon Musk during the cycle, including $276 million since July, according to the Federal Election Commission data Reuters cites. Texas polls are open Tuesday 7 a.m. to 7 p.m.
