Midterm Elections 2026: In the Final Stretch, the Campaign Has Become a Referendum on Trump

Five days before Election Day, the midterm campaign has narrowed to a debate not just about policy but about President Donald Trump himself and the reach of his presidency, according to a Reuters reporter's notebook filed Thursday from the campaign trail in Texas, Kentucky, Ohio and Iowa. What stayed with the reporter, Reuters wrote, were the doubts creeping in among some of Trump's most loyal supporters: in Iowa, voters at his rally said he needed to end the Iran war, and that rising gas prices were hurting him politically.

The closing arguments, as Reuters reported them, run in opposite directions at the same man. Democrats are promising to hold Trump accountable and lower living costs. Republicans are warning that Democrats will not lower costs but will instead usher in socialism. Trump, whose approval rating Reuters described as hovering near the lowest point of his second term, has spent weeks holding near-daily rallies to help Republicans keep Congress, while his speeches often stray far from voters' economic concerns. At a Georgia rally on Saturday, Reuters reported, Trump brushed aside concerns about rising gas prices caused by the Iran war, arguing higher oil prices were enriching the country: "I don't give a damn. I'm gonna say it. We're making a freaking fortune," he said. He repeatedly promises gas prices will fall when the war ends, Reuters wrote, but says little about the living costs voters call their top concern.

Former President Barack Obama joined the fray over the weekend, mocking Trump's White House renovations before a Michigan crowd. "He's got the White House looking like Saddam Hussein opened a Cheesecake Factory," Obama said, in remarks Reuters carried. Trump has told Republicans to pretend he is on the ballot next Tuesday, and Democrats have been happy to oblige, Reuters wrote. Beyond the rallies, Trump's Justice Department has been aggressively attempting to stop some states from counting ballots of people it says are noncitizens, drawing accusations from Democrats, election officials and voting-rights advocates that the federal government is inserting itself into the electoral process.

Tens of millions of Americans have already voted, Reuters noted, and both parties are making their final pitch before Nov. 3. The Texas results will be read through the same lens: the president campaigned in the state this week, and the notebook's central finding — that even loyal supporters are pressing him on war and prices — is the backdrop against which Texas voters cast the last early ballots on Friday and decide on Tuesday. If Democrats do as well as some polls are forecasting, Reuters wrote, the results could mark the beginning of Trump's lame-duck presidency and expose the limits of his political power.