Fox News Poll: Talarico and Paxton Tied at 49% in Texas Senate Race

The Texas U.S. Senate race is a dead heat with less than two weeks until Election Day, according to a new Fox News poll reported by the Texas Gazette. The survey shows Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico tied at 49% each among likely voters, erasing the two-point lead Talarico held in Fox's September poll, when he led 51% to 49%. Among the broader pool of registered voters, Talarico leads 52% to 46%.

Fox News said the shift reflects Paxton consolidating support among conservatives, rural voters, suburban women and voters who backed Sen. John Cornyn in the primary. Paxton's strongest groups include White evangelical Christians, whom he leads by 52 points, and rural voters, whom he leads by 21 points. Talarico leads among Black voters by 65 points, among urban voters by 29 points and among Hispanic voters 64% to 34%. Party loyalty runs deep on both sides: 98% of Democrats back Talarico and 90% of Republicans back Paxton, while Democrats hold an enthusiasm edge, with 69% saying they are extremely interested in the election compared with 61% of Republicans.

The candidates' personal ratings point in opposite directions. Paxton is viewed favorably by 41% of likely voters and unfavorably by 58%, while Talarico is narrowly positive at 49% favorable and 48% unfavorable. Pocketbook worries loom large: 43% of likely voters say their family's finances are worse than two years ago, compared with 20% who say they are better off. The one direct quote in the reporting comes from Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts the Fox News Poll with Democrat Chris Anderson: "The race is going to come down to two basic questions. Do disaffected Republicans show up and, if so, do they grit their teeth and vote for a candidate who they have serious reservations about?"

In the governor's race, Abbott leads Hinojosa 52% to 47% among likely voters, unchanged from September, with Abbott's job approval at 50% and disapproval at 48%. The poll was conducted under the joint direction of Beacon Research and Shaw & Company Research from October 15 to 19, among 2,011 Texas registered voters drawn from a statewide voter file, with a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 2.5 points for the subsample of 1,398 likely voters. Six percent of likely voters said they had already voted. The Fox result differs from the final Texas Public Opinion Research tracking poll reported earlier this week, which put Talarico ahead 51% to 47% — two reputable surveys, taken over overlapping days, reading the same race two different ways inside their margins of error. Early voting in Texas runs through October 30, and Election Day is November 3.