Texas Senate Poll: Talarico Leads Paxton 49 to 47 in the Texas Southern University Poll, and Abbott Leads Hinojosa 50 to 47

Texas's two marquee races enter the final weekend inside the margin of error of the same poll. The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at Texas Southern University, in a survey of 2,000 likely voters conducted October 21-25 and released Thursday, October 29, found Democrat James Talarico ahead of Republican Ken Paxton in the U.S. Senate race, 49 percent to 47 percent, according to the El Paso Times' account of the poll, read in full this cycle. The poll's margin of error is 2.19 percentage points, which makes the two-point Senate edge a statistical tie.

The splits underneath are wide. Talarico holds 99 percent of Democrats to Paxton's 88 percent of Republicans, with 8 percent of Republicans saying they plan to back Talarico, and he leads independents 54 to 38. Paxton leads by 16 points among white voters and 18 among voters 55 and older, while Talarico leads by 14 among Latino voters, by 88 among Black voters, by 8 among women and by 50 among voters aged 18 to 34. Talarico also leads 55 to 41 among voters with a four-year degree, while Paxton leads 52 to 44 among voters without one. Both candidates poll underwater: Talarico is viewed favorably by 48 percent and unfavorably by 51, Paxton favorably by 42 and unfavorably by 57.

In the governor's race, the same poll found Republican Gov. Greg Abbott leading Democrat Gina Hinojosa 50 to 47 — also inside the margin of error. Abbott leads by 22 points among voters 55 and older and polls 58 percent among white voters, while Hinojosa holds a 10-point advantage among Latino voters, a 65-point advantage among Black voters and a 49-point advantage among voters under 35; voters 35 to 54 are virtually tied, 49 to 47 for Abbott. Both governor candidates are also underwater on favorability — Abbott 48 favorable to 51 unfavorable, Hinojosa 45 to 49. Early voting closed Friday; Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.