Modeled Early Ballots Put Republicans Ahead by 474,470 in Texas — With a Second Model Telling a Smaller Story
An analyst's October 25 model classified about 4.1 million Texas early and mail ballots and assigned Republicans a 474,470-ballot advantage — but Texas does not register voters by party, and a second model produced notably different numbers.
A widely shared early-voting model now puts Republican-associated ballots well ahead in Texas. Election analyst E DataGuy's October 25 analysis classified 4,102,678 early and mail ballots statewide, assigning 2,258,996 to Republicans, 1,784,526 to Democrats and 59,157 to a separate category — an estimated Republican advantage of 474,470 ballots, up from the same analyst's October 22 estimate of 255,144.
Those are modeled classifications, not counted votes. Texas does not register voters by party, so any partisan split of early ballots rests on an analyst's assumptions, and the models do not agree: a separate October 26 model from On Point Politics estimated approximately 1.76 million Republican, 1.43 million Democratic and 984,000 independent or other early voters — the same direction, with notably different figures and a large independent group the first model does not break out the same way.
What is not modeled is the calendar: early voting runs through Friday, October 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3. Neither model counts a single vote for any candidate, and the actual results in the Senate race between Ken Paxton and James Talarico and every other contest will not be known until ballots are counted.
